Showing posts with label EntConnec. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EntConnec. Show all posts

Monday, May 18, 2009

Apocalypse Now?


Remember Charles Dicken’s Christmas Carol when Ebenezer Scrooge offered his “final solution” to the poverty problem? “If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”

Chilling.

In his “Arithmetic, Population and Energy” speech at the 2009 EntConnect conference, Dr. Bartlett regarded overpopulation as “The Greatest Challenge” facing humanity. If steady growth continues unchecked, zero population growth will happen, anyway, as we expend our non-rewable resources. High birth rates will drop and low death rates will rise until they are equal. How this happens may not be pretty.

What are our options to control population growth?

First, let’s look at some factors that promote overpopulation: motherhood, immigration, medicine, public health, sanitation, peace, law and order, scientific agriculture to produce more food, safety, clean air and water, etc. What we consider as good is bad because it makes the problem worse.

Now consider what curbs overpopulation: abstinence, contraception, abortion, small families, no immigration, diseases, war, murder, euthanasia, ethnic cleaning, violent crime, famine, accidents, disasters, pollution, smoking, AIDS, etc. Most of what we consider bad is good because it “decreases the surplus population.”

Good grief!

Dr. Bartlett regards sustainability as his “Great Challenge." “Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?”

He got me there.

How do we sustain living without unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse?

There must be a way to promote a more pleasant outcome. And that will be the subject of the final blog on this topic.


EntConnect website: entconnect.org

Dr. Bartlett links:
albartlett.org
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Bartlett
globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645

Photos from everystockphoto.com:
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: everystockphoto.com/photo.php?imageId=1661545

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Double Trouble




As writers strive to tell a good story, Dr. Bartlett retold this classic at the 2009 EntConnect conference to illustrate why sustainable growth is such an oxymoron.

In the 6th century AD, Indian King Balhait was concerned about the prevalence of gambling games based only on luck. He tasked his mathematician Sissa to create a game which would sharpen mental acuity and encourage virtue. Thus, the first game of chess was invented played on a 8 x 8 checkered board, totaling 64 squares.

So pleased with this new game, the king wished to reward his mathematician. Legend has it Sissa only asked for one grain on the first square of the board, then two grains on the second square, four on the third square, eight on the fourth square, etc., so that the next square doubled the amount of grain on the previous square till the board was filled.

This request seemed like a modest amount of grain, but the table below shows how this doubling scheme worked out.

-- Square # --Grain on Square -- Total # Grains--

------1 ------------- 1 ---------------------- 1 ----------
------2 ------------- 2 ---------------------- 3 ----------
------3 ------------- 4 ---------------------- 7 ----------
------4 ------------- 8 --------------------- 15 ----------
------5 -------------16 --------------------- 31 ---------
------6 -------------32 --------------------- 63 ---------
------…--------------…------------------------…--------
------n ---------- 2**(n-1) --------------- 2**n - 1 ------
------… -------------…-------------------------…--------
------64 --------- 2**63 ----------------- 2**64 - 1------

From the table we see the eight grains on the 4th square are more than the total of seven that are on the previous three squares. The 32 grains on the 6th square are more than the total of 31 on the previous five squares.




The trend is clear. The growth in any doubling time is greater than the total of all the preceding growth. So by the 64th square, the number of grains on the board is 18,445,744,073,709,551,515. That is 400 times the world wheat harvest in 1990 and possibly more wheat than humans have harvested in the entire history of the earth!

A modest percentage growth (7% growth per year, doubling time of 10 years as discussed in the previous blog) can equate to huge escalations over a short periods of time.

Double trouble? Just ask Captain Kirk. In the original Star Trek episode – The Trouble with Tribbles - those small furry creatures seemed to multiply without end!

For screenshot of Captain Kirk half-buried in Tribbles: click here


Dr. Bartlett links:
albartlett.org
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Bartlett
globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645

Chess links:
Origin of Chess: sports.indianetzone.com/chess/1/origin_chess.htm
CHESS –A GAME OF ROYALS
ORIGIN OF CHESS AND CHANGES THEREAFTER…
chessncrafts.com/chess-history.html

Star Trek links:
Trouble with Tribbles, plot summary: imdb.com/title/tt0708480/plotsummary
Screenshot of Captain Kirk half-buried in Tribbles:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribble_(Star_Trek)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:STTroubleTrib.jpg

Photos from everystockphoto.com:
Ancient chess board: everystockphoto.com/photo.php?imageId=1465423
Wheat grains: everystockphoto.com/photo.php?imageId=465717